That makes GTA V one of the most profitable games ever despite it being out of reach for those below 18 for good reason. The satirical depiction of America, filled with gun-wielding gangsters, conservative radio hosts and glitzy cars, has garnered around $7.68 billion in sales since coming out in 2013. Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto V has turned ten.Īs parent firm Take-Two TTWO laps another year of success for the game, fans just have one question - when will they get the next installment in the best-selling franchise? So due to the current combination of macro and technical issues he says, "the business cycle is back."ĪS GRAND THEFT AUTO V TURNS 10, FANS AWAIT DETAILS ON WHAT'S NEXT (1135 EDT/1535 GMT) With that in mind, he is watching the growth of artificial intelligence, noting that technology drives productivity growth and has caused plenty of "intense boom and bust periods" in history. So "the recent 40-year period of long cycles and expansions will prove to be the exception and not the norm" according to Reid who instead sees "a more regular pattern of boom-bust cycles" and "more frequent recessions" ahead as policymakers face more constraints due to inflation and debt.īut that's "not necessarily bad news for medium to long-term growth" as he says the "strongest growth in modern economic history has tended to come in periods where business cycles have been allowed to evolve more naturally and by definition roll over more frequently." Rising debt costs, and upside inflation pressure may bring more volatile interest rates and hence "more volatile business cycles" he suggests. However, Reid says there are limits to this philosophy, with public and private debt burdens rising to very high levels and "limiting our room for manoeuvre." Look at 2008's government budget deficits, 2020's pandemic stimulus and Europe's efforts to cushion the consumer from 2022's energy price shock. That has brought "increasingly aggressive interventions" from policymakers to ease recession pain and duration. And recent decades brought a philosophical shift where societies see recessions as "disasters to be avoided" rather than "facts of life." While two of the most severe post-WWII recessions were in the last 15 years, Reid says the "current experience of long expansions is historically unusual."Īnd, after records started in 1854 there was only one expansion of more than 5 years in the following century.įor longer cycles, Reid lists reasons like diversification away from agriculture, and weather dependency as well as infrequency of major wars. While investors debate a hard vs soft landing, Deutsche Bank's head of global economics and thematic research, Jim Reid, examines what history says and "the likely shape" of future recessions. IS THE BUSINESS CYCLE BACK? (1215 EDT/1615 GMT) 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.33% Dollar slips gold up crude up >1% bitcoin up >3%.Energy leads S&P 500 sector gainers cons disc weakest group.indexes post slight gains: S&P 500 up ~0.2%
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